20 Continuous Years of Profitable Investment Advice 

Since 1982

(We're now up 54% using safe investments during this bear market)

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that addresses this market which is so baffling to some.

Click on link: "Psychology of the Markets"
(Also available to Subscriber's in the archives)

As you begin to read this I would like to bring you up to date on my view of what I see happening in the economy and in the stock market.

If you're still holding some stocks in the hopes you'll get your money back, you may not like what you're about to read. However you are probably here because you didn't like the results of the investment advice you've been receiving over the last three years. 

Later on I'll explain why I see no future for stock prices at these levels and why I expect them to fall much farther before the real bottom has been established. But first I would like you to know that we've had a well thought out strategy to profit as this bear market started to unfold. The first part of my strategy was introduced in October 1999 when my model warned that the Great Bull Market for stocks was coming to an end. Since that time many investors have lost 40% to 50% or more during a period when over $8 trillion in equity value was being vaporized in the stock market. And it's probably going to get worse...a lot worse. The odds that the Dow could lose another 30 to 40% are extremely high at this time in spite of claims by Wall Street that this is now a "stock pickers market", meaning you still need them to pick the stocks for you. In addition to problems in the stock market there is growing evidence that we may be nearing a deflationary/depression that could see a collapse of assets including stocks, real estate and corporate bonds.

Does this statement sound familiar?

"My broker has been telling me repeatedly over the last 2 years to sit tight and ride this out...the market will recover and I'll soon be glad I didn't sell. Well I took his advice and now my investments are down over 40%...and I'm starting to have doubts".

If it does, you're not alone!

That's not the kind of advice that you'll hear from me and that's not the kind of advice that has enabled our subscribers' investments to grow by over 54% since the beginning of this bear market. I expect to  be making some additional recommendations soon that have the potential to be much more profitable as the events that I expect to happen, start to unfold. 

So if you think that we may have something of interest and you want to know more about how we plan on doing even better in the near future, I hope you'll read on.

Jim Shepherd


Here's what we did during the first phase of our strategy:

*Out of consideration for our paying subscribers, references to investments are made in general terms only.

1.  Government Debt Instruments* are being used to preserve our core capital that had been accumulated during the Great Bull Market. As the economy continues to weaken, interest rates will fall and these debt instruments will appreciate in value, and could conceivably be worth 200% or more of their original purchase price. 

On October 25th 1999 Jim Shepherd's model issued a sell signal. This sell signal was the first warning that a bear market was probably on the way.  Subscribers were advised to sell all stocks and to prepare to start using an alternative investment (1 above) that would be extremely safe and would benefit from the approaching changes the model was predicting.  The strategy worked perfectly and this new investment has increased in value by over 54%. 

As the changes in the economy and the stock market unfold we are preparing to use at least three more strategies and we expect some of these additional strategies to be many times more profitable than our first one (these are listed below, 2 through 4). As you read this we may have already taken further steps depending on the model. As these additional strategies are employed they will not be disclosed to the press or the public until several months later.

2. A bear market Mutual Fund* which has a value that is inverse (opposite) to the performance of the S&P 500 Index. If the S&P were to collapse or continue to drift lower losing 50 to 60% of its value (a distinct possibility) this fund would increase in value by an equal amount providing a possible return of 200% or more. 

3.  High Beta Government Debt Instruments* (there are several types that may be recommended depending on circumstances at the time) that offer rapid appreciation in the event of a stock market collapse. The value of these instruments could appreciate by as much as 500% or more.

4.  Leveraged Instruments* will be used for maximum profit in the event that an imminent crash signal is received from the model. These instruments will explode in value as the market collapses and could provide returns that may exceed the 6700% gains realized by Jim Shepherd and his clients during the 1987 crash. (Leveraged instruments are not recommended for all investors)

Correct timing is the key!

The correct timing to use these investments has been, and will continue to be, critical to profit  from them. Although Jim Shepherd's model was probably the very first to warn of the current bear market it has not  reached a point called "critical mass", that would be a further warning of an imminent crash.  Jim's model issued a sell signal on September 8th 1987 and then reached critical mass in the first week of October of that year. The market started to crash on October 16th and saw its biggest one day drop in history on October 19th 1987.

Although the majority of the signals are of a long-term directional basis, Jim will on occasion identify and notify subscribers about approaching short-term technical changes that he has identified. One of those occurrences took place recently:

During the week of July 22nd, 2002 he told subscribers to expect a technical rally that could take the Dow (then below 7800) to around the 9000 level. On July 24th the rally began and by July 30th the Dow had rallied back to around 8700 before the rally was temporarily derailed. The stock market began to sell-off again following the release of revised GDP data that showed the economy had actually experienced three quarters of negative growth instead of only one. This sell-off lasted about a week until August 6th when Jim advised subscribers to expect the resumption of the rally toward Dow 9000 again. These powerful bear market rallies can be expected from time to time but should not be considered to be true market bottoms. This market remains very dangerous and when selling resumes again the market could quickly surpass its recent lows.

Was it just luck? 

Some of our competitors and some of the advisors and analysts on Wall Street would like you to believe it was just luck. However, since Jim started using his model, it has issued 11 signals, (all of them correct) warning of  an approaching change, either up or down, of the US markets. 

In Jim's introduction he told you he'd explain why he sees no future for stock prices and why he expects them to fall much farther. Here's the problems we face:

1.  Stock prices remain more overvalued than they were in the summer of  1929.

2.  Earnings have been falling faster than stock prices and he sees nothing to change that trend. 

3.  Debt remains perilously high for consumers, corporations and governments.

4.  Debt defaults are approaching levels not seen since the 1930s.

5.  Bankruptcies of major US corporations are rising rapidly.

6.  Scandals that are reminiscent of the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 when many went to jail, including the president of the New York Stock Exchange, resulting in Wall Street becoming public enemy number one. 

7.  Jim has recently advised subscribers that he has calculated the odds of the economy slipping into a severe deflationary environment have risen recently to over 95%.

8. This is the first period of time since the Great Depression  that government debt instruments are outperforming stocks. (Jim recommended them to subscribers in October 1999).

As you can see this is not a pretty picture and does not give investors a lot of confidence to begin buying stocks again in the near future. However for those of you who sense that things aren't the way they should be, and who would like to know how they can profit from this situation, we can offer you some well thought out, safe, and timely investment recommendations. 

We invite you to look through some of the other information that you will find on this site that includes:

1. Articles about Jim Shepherd and his success during the 1987 stock market crash. San Diego Magazine and San Diego Daily Transcript

2. Charts to show how a $10,000 investment in 1982 has grown to over $491,088 today by following the signals from Jim's model. Investment Results

3. A Dow chart showing each of the 11 buy and sell signals  since 1982.

4. An outline of the four strategies we are employing to "Profit During A Bear or Collapsing Market"


Some of the prime benefits of our service:

  • No commissions to pay

  • No software to learn.

  • 5 minutes per week on phone

  • Know about trend changes in advance.

  • Always be in the right asset class when change is about to happen.

Subscription Fees

The annual fees have not changed since 1997. 

1 year subscription..................................$375.00

2 year subscription.........(save $125).........$625.00

3 year subscription.........(save $250).........$875.00

Jim's Risk Free GUARANTEE

Now again in Jim's words: The best part about this is that I am offering this service risk free. Let me explain. In my management business, I never charge a fee unless, and only if, my client makes a profit. In my portfolio advisory business, where clients pay me $20,000 and more per year to advise them on their overall portfolios, I agree in writing to refund all fees if the advice is not profitable.

Editor's note: The offering of this service is an adjunct, made possible by Jim's staff looking after all administration, freeing Jim to concentrate on the market. This allows us to offer this service at a SMALL FRACTION of the above price!

As one of the advantages of having made a great deal of money in the markets, I don't have the same financial pressures that many advisors and stockbrokers do. I can afford to do things the way they should be done. To me, that means that unless my clients make money, I shouldn't either.

The offering of this guarantee is a little different. Unlike my managed accounts where I offer a money back guarantee - because I control everything - I have no control over the action you take on my signal. In having no real control, I cannot take responsibility for your profits or losses.

But what I do offer is a guarantee that is on average 3 times the length of most newsletter services (normally 30 days). I offer a 90 day FULL money back GUARANTEE! NO QUESTIONS ASKED! But of course, I do not anticipate that you would ask for your money back, because, after using my model for the last 20 years, I know it works perfectly every time. But if for any reason you are unhappy, contact us within the 90 days for a 100% refund.

Summary - What You Will Receive

  1. A timely "Buy Signal" that will tell you when to buy back into the market and give advice about the appropriate sectors and funds for the best possible growth.
  2. A timely "Sell Signal" to warn you about approaching major problems in the stock market and recommendations on alternate investments to use for safety and continued appreciation. 
  3. Occasional warnings or cautions when the model detects short term changes in the market or in a particular sector.
  4. A monthly written communiqué to keep you informed about what the model sees approaching that could affect the market.
  5. A Week in Review of some important items that may have an affect on the economy or the market. (On the website only) 
  6. Audio Updates. Every Friday evening after 6PM EST a weekly update will be available by calling in by phone or on our web site using Real Audio.
  7. Special Audio Updates when the Dow moves approximately 3% or more in one day (presently set at 250 Dow points) - after 6PM EST.
  8. Changes about asset classes: Jim will relay in general terms what he is doing for his managed level clients.
  9. Your RISK FREE GUARANTEE - a full 90 Day Unconditional Money back GUARANTEE (first time subscribers only).
  10. Great Savings for multiple year subscriptions - up to $250 in savings offered! 
  11. Reduce Your Stress. More than one subscriber has made comments like "Finally I've found a way to take the Fear and Greed out of my investment decisions...and it's a great feeling".

So … if your portfolio is worth say $400,000 (and for many, it could be much more) then an investment of only $375 per year is sort of an insurance plan on your investments that costs less than 1/10th of 1 percent… some spend that on brokerage fees for one trade! This is the most inexpensive investment you may ever make! 

To Subscribe

To sign up right away click on link: https://www.jasmts.com/secure/activation.asp or select the green SUBSCRIBE NOW button at left and complete and submit the form. Note that it is a secure site for credit card use, but if you would rather, you may print off the Activation Form and either fax it or mail it along to us, remembering to enclose your check or credit card particulars.

Applying electronically will offer a considerable time saving. Most orders are processed within a day, however, please allow up to three business days to process your order in case of backlog. On receipt of payment, the 'hot line' access telephone number will be sent to you along with a password to the secure MEMBER'S area of our website. You will then have access to all current investment recommendations and all archived newsletters going back to the beginning of  this service in 1997.

Still not Sure?

If you still aren't sure that you would like to take advantage of Jim's outstanding expertise at this time, perhaps allowing us to stay in touch with you from time to time with an occasional special report that Jim produces may be of interest?

All we ask for is your email address so we can send you the information. Our future contact with you will be minimal.

We do not sell or trade email addresses or personal information.

A Special free Report on Psychology of the Markets recently written by Jim IS AVAILABLE NOW. To receive this special offer immediately by email, simply enter your email address   by selecting (click here).


Past performance does not guarantee future results.



I have been in the market since 1958, and was a broker from 1967-2001 (34 years). I have utilized many technical services in my 34 years, but I rate JAS MTS Inc. #1. If more brokers knew or utilized technical analysis (Ed note: Jim Shepherd's model does not only rely on technical analysis), maybe their customers might have some money left. JAS MTS Inc. told people to liquidate October 1999 - Excellent Call! Your track record speaks for itself!

  • Mike Z. Brenan, retired Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Broker. 

Mr. Shepherd,

I want to thank you for the service you provide. You are obviously skilled in your understanding of the markets, economics and history.
I am a physician and went into private practice after five years of residency training three years ago. At that time I was anxious to invest and participate in what appeared to be a booming stock market. I bought subscriptions in technology investing newsletters that guided me into stock after stock that lost me thousands of dollars. One day on a raging bull message board I saw a positive comment and link to your site. I checked it out but unfortunately thought your having a " model" was to good to be true.
So I followed your comments for months. Finally I subscribed and that was the day I STOPPED losing money.
I work hard every day and because of the stress of being a physician, even though I love what I do, I look forward to retirement.
Losing hard earned capital was very painful. Your service has enabled me to have a clear understanding of the economic world and make investments... not speculate.
Most importantly I want to thank you for sharing your knowledge unselfishly. You could keep your ideas and words to yourself,
but you don't. You seem most interested in justice and truth and sharing that with those that don't have your knowledge.
Joseph P. Riley, D.O.

To all the fine folks at JASMTS; I can't say enough about your integrity and the model you work from.  I have always believed there was tremendous downside ahead in this market. If left to my own feelings I would have used options long ago and would have paid the price. I am a small investor, but on a relative basis the money you have kept me from losing is large.  When we get to critical mass I will still have funds to act thanks to you. My sincere appreciation. Your service is head and shoulders above any other I have tried when it comes to risk/reward balancing.

For Jim Shepherd,

I have been trading the markets successfully for 12 years on a daily basis.
Your commentary is focused and accurate and while we have never met, I am certain that you're a man of the highest integrity. I know that many people will not have the patience to trade the markets as you do, even after they are unsuccessful with alternate methods. So few people are successful long-term which is why I feel fortunate to have found you.

Keep up the fantastic work,

Jeff  Steinberg, Toronto, Ontario.

Have studied Shepherd's approach for over 12 months. Never have come across anyone with greater acumen for understanding the universe of variables & forces that govern Financial markets. Along with these skills, true humility - Amazingly refreshing concern for truth in midst of hype driven industry.

Dear Jim,
I've been a subscriber since 1999. I've been a trader for 13 years. I want to thank you for sharing your thoughts 2x weekly since the sell signal. I feel you are quite generous in continuing these updates considering the very reasonable yearly subscription rate, but more importantly is that you are sharing info that has turned out to be completely accurate. Some very good services with long standing positive returns have gotten crushed in the last few years. I have subscribed to several other more expensive (some very expensive) but none have come close to your service. Thanks again

  • Rick Young,
    Boulder CO

I renewed my subscription to JASMTS for one reason, accuracy. Jim Shepherd hits homeruns and his track record proves that patience results in profits. .... and there is little doubt that as a result of this service, I will prosper when most don't.
For example, I rolled my 401K into a full bond position in December of 2000 at Jim's advice and it is now up over 27%. My 401K has made significant gains for two years running while many other were laden with red ink as the DOW and NASDAQ trended lower. Jim's advice has not only preserved my capital, it has netted me gains.
In addition, Jim provides a service based on sound business ethics and concern for his subscribers. I want to deal with a market timing service I can trust and this one is the best there is.

  • John Moser, Elizabethtown P.A.

I am one of those investors who put a good sum of money in what was thought to be good Mutual Funds in early 2000. I had been a former subscriber before that time but I let my subscription lapse for some time. In the middle of 2000 I renewed my subscription but the market had fallen somewhat at that time and I had missed your sell signal. I kept thinking the market would come back and I am still holding but I would be $150,000.00 better off today if I had taken your advice. Keep up the good work.

  • E. Coleman

... Since I have subscribed to your service I have never been more at ease in the market following your advice. I am continuing to make gains and no losses, what a wonderful feeling. ... We had a planner come out to set up to help us with investing and planning for the future. He wanted us to invest for long term by investing in growth funds etc. Because I was subscribing ... We put the money 3/4 bonds & 1/4 money market. He was mad at us because we didn't listen to him because he told us he was the expert. That was last March. I do not have to say anymore. My wife would have lost several thousand $, but instead is ahead several thousand. What piece of mind we have now. Its very sad to see so many people with there huge losses, & they still insist they're in for long term. Long term to me is I'll never live long enough to recover over the long term the losses I would have if it wasn't for Mr. Shepherd. Thanks again My wife & I are 62 & its all the more important that we invest properly.

  • K.S., Cambridge, WI

"since subscribing to JASMTS I've always looked forward to Jim's audio updates on the web, and receiving the monthly report - even in my short period of membership with the small amount of money I had invested in US stocks, Jim's report has saved me the cost of subscribing, which is substantial to me (in New Zealand dollars!)".

  • Vicki Slade, Christchurch New Zealand

Note to Jim. Thank you!  You enabled me to preserve my capital!   If not for you and your guidance, I would have been one of those that lost 50 - 60% of invested capital. I was fully invested in the market until I had the benefit of your services beginning in May of 2000 (still after your sell signal). Your service helps me to maintain a posture of patience and confidence for the future.  Many blessings to you and your staff!

  • Bob Brandt, Crystal Lake, IL 

"I joined your service at the base level in August of 2000, and a month later moved to the Mid level service. I only wish I had heard of you before. I would have saved a lot of money! What I like about Jim is that he does not feel compelled to give a lot of change-ups which normally end up losing one money. He is consistent. I have to say, I am so happy I am looking forward to signing up again next year and sending you (another) check for (several thousand dollars). One can't say that with too many things in life!

  • M.M., Kirkland, WA. 

"...as a second year subscriber I am more than pleased with your service especially since you have a "conviction" in your analysis of the market and a sincere approach to helping your clients not only increase their wealth, but more importantly, PRESERVING THEIR WEALTH a rarity in marketing services today! I always look forward to listening to you Friday evening before I make any decisions for trading on Monday! Keep up the good work."

  • R.D. USA

"I have been surprised by the accuracy of Jim's short term market predictions. He has predicted a number of corrections with an accuracy that has startled me. In two recent minor panics - the original Asian panic in 1997 and in the correction that accompanied the Russian default - Jim steadfastly maintained this was definitely NOT the start of the bear market while many better known market oracles predicted disaster (and a couple of my friends bought index puts near the bottom). ...so diametrically different from the rest of the market timers. They all get more bullish the more the market rises and more pessimistic the further it falls. But not only is The Shepherd Investment Strategist different - most of the time, not a minor detail, it is correct as well."

  • R.N. A foreign subscriber consulted by a previous U.S. administration on economic policy matters.
    For a complete read of the letter (which makes rather interesting reading) of June 2, 1999, from which this was taken click here

"...I want to thank and congratulate Mr. James A. Shepherd in predicting the market direction. I followed his advice and it has saved me a lot of money. Thanks."

"I just wanted to take a moment and let you know how very pleased I've been with your services. There's truly nothing else like it in the world!"

  • A.N. North Carolina