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Investment Results

It is a fact; ninety five percent of fund managers don’t beat the indexes! And few beat them 2 years in a row.

But we do beat the indexes by using the Model and by a significant amount.

The graphs below show that since 1982 our results are approximately 400% better than when an investment is left alone to rise and fall over time using the buy and hold strategy. Our results were attained by either stepping aside during coming dangerous times in the stock market or by moving into alternate investments. We have been invested in stocks approximately 85% of the time, and very important, none of our indicated results include dividends or huge profits from leveraged instruments (of which we have used on several occasions in 1987, 1991, 1994, and 1998). Our results are based on actual investments and do not include forward projected hypothetical returns based on guesswork, as is the common practice by many forecasters. The Model’s track record speaks for itself, it’s accurate, timely and is never qualified. And unlike many other forecasters, who today speak with only a few years behind them, we have a proven 20 year history in real time to rely upon.

The Model identifies changes to underlying factors in the economy well in advance and takes them into account to accurately predict market directional changes that are so significant that they should not be ignored. Being out of the stock market and into alternate investments at the correct time can make huge differences over the lifetime of investments that are so important to retirement plans. Large losses in portfolio value in the years just prior to retirement are usually impossible to replace and result in a delayed retirement or a lifestyle that is greatly reduced.

“I’ve been surprised by the accuracy of Jim’s market predictions….so diametrically different from the rest of the market timers. They all get more bullish the more the market rises and more pessimistic the further it falls. Not only is The Shepherd Investment Strategist different, but it is correct as well”
ĚRN A foreign subscriber consulted by a previous U.S. Administration on economic policy (click here to read this very revealing letter)



Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results

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