For list of Major Buy & Sell Signals go to table at bottom of page
Market Forecasting is one of the most important facets of investing and will enhance your investment results and protect your capital.
Knowing when to be in the market and when to be on the sidelines, or in other asset classes, can improve your investment results by many times over the "Buy and Hold" strategy. More importantly utilizing other asset classes at the appropriate time generally means safer positioning of capital.
Being of a scientific mind, Jim Shepherd decided to do some homework to determine if major market moves in the US stock market could be predicted. That homework went on for years until he had developed such a model. You can imagine his delight when the Model successfully back tested (every major move, both up and down) over a 100-year period. It took him over 6 years to arrive at a point where he could start testing it in real time. During the early years in the eighties it gave him three signals. Since those three, it has given eight more in 'real time', that have been used with our clients, for a total of eleven clear signals on market direction since the early eighties.
The first big success was when the Model issued a sell signal 41 days prior to the 1987 crash and then reached critical mass 3 weeks prior to the crash. One of the more recent signals got our clients back into the market on September 25th 1998 (2). The market went on to gain 30% in the next few months. This signal came at a very negative time in the market when most thought that the market was finally going to crash. On October 25th 1999 (3), the Model issued a sell signal. We sold all stocks and purchased 30-year government bonds to preserve our stock market profits. These bonds have now appreciated by over 40%.
NOTES ON ABOVE GRAPH:
The following table outlines the major market moves that the Model has signaled.
|SUMMARY OF JAS
MAJOR REAL TIME SIGNALS SINCE 1986
Sept 1987 SELL Market Crashed Oct.19th
May 1988 BUY Market rose 50% to July '90
Aug.1990 SELL Market fell 20% in 3 months
Jan. 1991 BUY Market rose 52% in 3 years
Mar.1994 SELL Market fell 10% in 2 months
Jan. 1995 BUY Market rose 140% (DOW 3838 to 9105) to May '98 caution
May 1998 CAUTION (we intend to step aside)
July 1998 WARNING On telephone, 7/10 predicted down move of May coming - market started dropping July 17 and was still down 12% in Sept when next signal issued
Sept.1998 BUY Market rose 40% in 14 months to Oct '99
Oct.1999 SELL Sell Equities Buy Long Term US Government 30 Year T Bonds
Dec.2000 Advisory On Dec. 18th a Short-Term rally advisory was issued specifically noting that the rally would be limited to blue chip technology issues, certain financials and other big-cap stocks only. NOTE this was done within the time frame of the overall sell signal in place at that time. The prime aim of the update was to warn subscribers who may be short the market to cover their positions until further notice. (This advisory was terminated in Mid-January)
Fall of 2001: Bond investments up over 40%, and awaiting new asset allocation to take advantage of Model's next signal.
Our subscribers are never surprised in any market
This page last edited
November 13, 2001