Financial Advise Stock Market Crash Great Depression Inflation Deflation Bear Market Jim Shepherd's financial advisor service uses a financial investment model that 
		accurately predicts the financial long-term changes in the US financial stock market. The financial investment model used by Jim's financial advisor 
		service predicted both the 1987 and 1929 stock market crashes. Many other smaller interim financial moves also were predicted, including the
		beginning of the 2000 Bear stock market in late 1999. Both inflation and the current descent toward deflation, that was responsible for the great
		depression, are measured by this same financial investment model that has been used to predict both bear markets and new bull markets,
		far in advance of anything available in the U.S. financial markets.
Saturday January 31, 2009  
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  You (Jim Shepherd) are
... the best in the
business!
Mike Z. Brenan
retired Morgan
Stanly Dean Witter
Broker, FL
(subscribed Dec '00
paid thru March
'09)

Welcome CKNW Money Talks listeners

During Victor Adairís December 27th 2004 interview, Jim Shepherd made a reference to a comparison of DJIA in the 1929-30 timeframe to the S&P; 500 in the present. The following are the charts he was referring to:

One of the most difficult attitudes to adopt on a regular basis is the willingness to question conventional wisdom. This is especially true when the majority of information is slanted in a particular direction. I implore you, however, to think logically about what you are told. If you do, I am confident you will understand the truth.


DJIA 1920 - 1932


S&P; 500 1998 - 2004

One way of ascertaining the investment environment is to compare it with eras from the past. As you can see in the charts above, I have drawn a comparison between the action of the DJIA in the period prior to and after the crash of 1929 and that of the peak of the S&P; 500 in 2000 and its action thereafter. It is very interesting to see an almost identical pattern with respect to the magnitude of the initial rebounds in both cases.

In the case of the DJIA, the initial decline as the crash of 1929 progressed took the market from its peak of 380 in August 1929 all the way to a level of 195 by November of that year. Then, a sharp bear-market rally ensued which regained almost precisely half of the total loss sustained. However, the excitement that was generated by the rally was short-lived. As a deflationary environment developed (a deflation signal would have been generated in my model in July 1930), the stock market basically went into a freefall before finally bottoming in 1932, at a level of 40!

In the contemporary timeframe, we can see an eerily similar bear-market pattern. The S&P; 500 peaked in March of 2000 at a level of 1550. It then began a dramatic decline all the way to the 770 level by October 2002. Then, in a text-book example of a Fibonacci retracement, the index moved to an almost perfect 50% rebound. It has since bounced decisively off that resistance area and looks poised to move much lower soon. Naturally, even though this is a strictly technical analysis of two market periods, it does deserve some credence.


Jim Shepherd
Jim Shepherd,
Founder and President

Collapse of a Wall Street Bank

The collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns saw the company's stock fall from a high of $171.51 to $2.00. Stockholders lost $19 Billion, and the losses suffered by holders of BSC issued CDs will be substantial.

On April 13th 2006, Jim Shepherd warned against owning any CDs issued by financial institutions in the belief that some of them would fail before this crisis is over.

Time Magazine
March 31, 2008


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