|Saturday July 4, 2009|
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Money managers and brokers are the reason most investors buy near the top and sell near the bottom. Human nature dictates that being part of a herd is comfortable, especially if that comfort is reinforced by what you read, hear or see on TV. After all, arenít the majority usually correct? Unfortunately thatís seldom true when investing is involved. Do you know that few investors had any interest in stocks in 1982 when the latest bull market began? You probably remember that millions of investors lost trillions of dollars between 2000 and 2002 because they refused to believe that the bull market was ending. Were there any signals that it was time to begin buying stocks in 1982? Were there any warning signs before the 1987 crash? Were there any warning signs that the bull market was nearing an end in 1999? The answer is yes, if you knew where to look.
#1 "If Wishes Were Horses,"
"Then Beggars Would Ride"
In this issue:Many believe that the economy has bottomed, the stock market has begun a new bull run, and everything will soon return to the normal they used to believe in before this nightmare started. Even the esteemed head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has stated that he believes the economy has stopped declining as dramatically, indicating that the worst is likely over and that growth should return as early as the end of this year. Is this a "wish" ... more
#2 American Capitalism
In this issue:"We have been on high alert for the statistical evidence of deflation, because there is no environment that is more dangerous for traditional investmetns than that one. If you refer to the chart which depicts wholesale deflation (Producer Price Index) on a monthly year-over-year basis, you can see on the most recent bar (March 2009) shows a very large decline." ... more
#3 A Scared Prayer
Ain't Worth A Darn!
In this issue:...the amount of monetary and fiscal stimuli that is being thrown at these problems is so dramatic that in the future we can be assured of a very nasty outbreak of inflation. Right now, as I will demonstrate, those latent forces are being crushed by the deflationary forces that are strengthening, but the point is that regulators are simply hoping to be able to contain a massive fire they are creating when it finally emerges. This will be highly unlikely.... more
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